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Dubious Speculation: $500,000 by 2025
Guest Post by @TheMoneyTech
THEY SAID HUMAN FLIGHT WAS NOT POSSIBLE
They say a lot of stupid shit…
Welcome to the party pal.
Our psychopathy can out last your money printing.
DAVID COULD NEVER WIN
November, 2011, Bitcoin lay dead at $2. Fallen for over half the year from May, 2011 at insanely unstable heights of more than $30.
Bitcoin was finished. Just over three years in.
It had a good run, but nothing good lasts forever.
It was a noble effort, but nothing can defeat the central banks.
The goliath is simply to massive to be stopped by a puny little nerd start-up…
THEY SAID BITCOIN TO $1,000 WAS IMPOSSIBLE
What if I told you, in November, 2011, that Bitcoin was not only not over, not only was Bitcoin going to survive at $2, but that Bitcoin was set on a fixed course to arrive at $1,000 in the foreseeable future.
You’d call me a moron probably.
Have fun staying poor, asshole. Lol :-)
AND A GOOD DAY TO YOU MR. FIB-O-NACHEE
Maybe we are looking at bitcoin with the wrong measure. What if we use the dollar index as our bitcoin price. Since bitcoin is traded globally, seems like an index calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of more currencies would be more accurate.
The DXY uses six foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc which should in theory be a better measure of the global price of bitcoin.
And why don’t we throw a fibonacci retracement on the 2011 price action and extend it out a few years, and see where it goes.
After all, the golden ration of .618 is found everywhere, maybe it is the underlying design of the fabric of our universe, and since human nature is made up of the fabric of the universe then human nature should in theory map onto the golden ratio as well, including the bitcoin price.
In our first fibonacci retracement, we set our 0% line at the 2011 bottom, and we set our 100% line at the 2011 top. Shown in the above chart in grey.
Note that since this is the BLX/DXY chart, USD $100 is about the equivalent DXY $1, so USD $2 is roughly DXY $0.02. And USD $30 is approximately DXY $0.3. Just need to move the decimal over two, more or less. You can see in the above chart the top and bottom of 2011 circled.
We then layer on our second fibonacci in purple, setting 0% at the 100% line of the first fibonacci, and we set 100% of our second fibonacci at the 161.8% line of the first fibonacci. As we can see, in September 2013, the bitcoin price had a strong down wick to the 61.8% line of this second fibonacci as it proceeded higher with tremendous buying pressure.
Finally, we layer on our third fibonacci colored in red, setting 0% at the 161.8% line of the first fibonacci, and 100% at the 261.8% line of the first fibonacci. As we can see, in November of 2013, the bitcoin price had a strong up wick to the 61.8% line of this third fibonacci, indicating a blow off top of just over $1,000. You can see in the above chart the top of 2013 is circled.
Pretty powerful. We predicted the $1,000 future price in late 2013, based on information two years prior.
Or maybe it was a coincidence that the price moved around these levels…
LETS TRY IT AGAIN!
Remember, the only data points we are using is the prior all time high, and the low that followed the high. Let’s take a look.
In this first fibonacci retracement, we set our 0% line at the 2015 bottom of $150, and we set our 100% line at the 2013 top. Shown here once again in grey. And from these fibonacci price levels we layer on our second in purple and our third in red.
Based on information as of January 2015, we can anticipate a future price of approximately $20,000, assuming the price rises to the same 61.8%. And sure enough that is exactly what happened.
As we can see, in October 2017, the bitcoin price had a strong down wick to the 61.8% line of this second fibonaci in purple as it proceeded higher with tremendous buying pressure once again.
And like clock work, in December of 2017, the bitcoin price had a strong up wick to the 61.8% line of this third red fibonacci, indicating a blow off top of $20,000.
THIRD TIMES A CHARM?
Well, not exactly.
According to our fibs we should have seen a bitcoin price of approximately $200,000 at the red fib 61.8% level.
We had the same strong wick down to the purple 61.8% and we began to make a run up to the red 61.8% but we were stopped at the grey 161.8% line of about $67,000.
There are some interesting observations here, nonetheless. It is interesting that even with all of the paper bitcoin sold by FTX and others, bitcoin still managed to arrive at a 61.8% fib. It’s like the universe really likes this ratio for some reason.
So what can we infer for the future?
Well, let’s run the numbers.
OKAY LORD, LET ME HAVE IT
Are you ready for some dubious speculation!
Same setup as before. Grey fib sets 0% at bottom of $15K, and 100% fib at prior top of $70K. Based on that, we layer on our purple and red fibs. And the results?
If we repeat the 2013 and 2017 cycles, hold on to your butts. Looks like about $560K.
If however we repeat previous 2021 cycle, looks like a modest $210,000 top.
Also note, if you’ve been paying attention, I went ahead and layered on the time frames for each cycle, and based on the 2017 and 2021 timing post halving, looks like October 2025 for the next top.
Where will we end up? I’ve been in this game long enough to be completely wrong. I’ve even got a pinned tweet saying we are on a path to $100,000 forever. Mostly to troll yellow. Lol. But the math does check out on that one too. So who the hell knows!
One thing is for certain, everything else is going to zero. That’s why I stack sats, every week, regardless of price, like a psychopath, till they bury me in the ground, because there is no second best.
There’s Bitcoin or there’s slavery, and I ain’t about to forsake my ancestors, or my descendants. Not on my fucking watch.
Fiat delenda est.
P.S. shout out to Knut Svanholm and Daniel Prince for motivating this article. Knut was responding to Daniel in a tweet about prices and I jumped in about this BLX/DXY fib stuff, and Knut was like, nope I don’t think so bro. And I’m like, I guess we’ll just have to find out…