Bitcoin Bear Market Diaries 2022: Volume 5 with Ben Kaufman
Name
Ben Kaufman
Country
None
How do people know you?
(Unelected) Chairman of the Council of Bens, open source contributor, and Twitter shitposter.
How long have you been into Bitcoin?
Since around the beginning of 2017
How many Bitcon market cycles have you been through?
This is my second cycle so far.
What are you optimistic about in this space despite the current state of the market?
Hash rate is still around ATH, blocks are still mined around once every 10 minutes, basically everything still works the same regardless of the price drop. We’re all still here, devs are still developing, miners are still mining, and shitposters are still shitposting. So honestly, I don’t see much to be pessimistic about.
What tips do you have to those who are new to this or who might be upside down?
First of all I think no one, not even those who are in their first cycle, should be surprised. A 10 seconds look on the historical price chart could show anyone that after a strong bull run comes a large drop. So I can’t honestly believe this has caught anyone “by surprise”.
In terms of tips, my advice hasn’t changed. Keep stacking, hold your own keys, and keep learning on the fundamentals of Bitcoin.
Biggest regret during the last bull market?
Not shorting Luna on time.
What have you learned so far in this bear market?
Where the yield comes from.
What is the biggest fail you have seen during the last bull cycle?
Honestly the biggest fail is probably that we haven’t reached the $100K. I think this is quite a fail compared to other cycles.
What do you think helped trigger the current bear market?
Mostly the degenerate gambling that created a house of cards that was bound to collapse. People overleveraged so much that even a small drop for a while could trigger a large collapse.
Who were the biggest scammers exposed during this last market meltdown?
I think most scams out there were already quite obvious, so hard to say “exposed.”
What kind of damage do you think the latest price drop has done to buyer sentiment?
In the short term it obviously created quite some panic in the market, but from a long term view I think it didn’t do much. This crash was known to come, and wasn’t really as brutal as some of the crashes from the previous cycles. So overall I think not that much harm was done for buyers confidence, people should already be used to worse drops from previous cycles, nothing special with this one.
What is it going to take to turn this around?
It’s just a matter of time now until all the leveraged positions get liquidated, price stabilizes, buyers gain back confidence, and things will get back on track.
What type of carnage do you expect to see in Bitcoin startups?
It’ll probably get harder now to start or raise capital, but from what I see in the industry it’s not as bad as the previous crash. Confidence of investors is still quite strong, as they know it’s just a temporary downturn.
What are your tips for HODLing Bitcoin through downturns?
I think it should be obvious this is just a temporary downturn, and selling now is probably the worst thing you could do. I can only suggest to work as hard as you can to be able to take advantage of the current discount and stack as much as you can. Personally, my biggest regret is not working harder during the last bear market to stack more, and I think this regret is common for anyone who's already been through at least one cycle. My best tip is to not make that mistake.
How do you feel about alt-coins and NFT’s?
Honestly, I think NFTs were this cycle’s ICO craze. Just a fad that was overhyped and will mostly disappear now that the bear market starts. I don’t think NFT as a concept is necessarily completely worthless, even physical trading cards have value to some people, but personally, I don’t see anything interesting about it. I’m not in this industry to digitize Magic The Gathering, I’m here for a monetary revolution - a new form of money that is changing the world. As for altcoins, I guess it depends on what an altcoin even is. I don’t think USDT, for example, is worthless. I think it only exists because there is a regulatory arbitrage to capture, but as long as this regulatory arbitrage exists, these types of tokens will stay. But speaking more in general about altcoins, I believe all of them are either useless or simply uninteresting, and are just destined to crash and be replaced by the next thing people want to gamble on.
What kind of impact do you think the radical drop in alt-coins and NFT’s will have on their future?
As for NFTs, I think this crash has them mostly done. I doubt we will see NFTs in the next cycle, maybe to some extent, but the hype will likely go to some other overhyped nonsense. As for altcoins, most of the currently popular ones will likely never recover, but some new ones will probably start rising as we reach the next bull market.
What do you think about shitcoins like Luna, Celsus, etc imploding?
Even for a shitcoin, Luna seemed especially scammy from the beginning, so I don’t think there should be any surprise there. As for Celsius and the other crypto lenders, their whole business model was just too fragile, it was quite clear to anyone not blinded by their marketing that the whole thing will start breaking as soon as the market begins to get bumpy. People just shouldn’t invest in stuff they know nothing about, they should understand that there’s no yield without a risk.
What is your take on Blockfi’s business model in trouble being acquired by FTX?
So Blockfi depositors really just got a second chance, which they should be very thankful for. And in a world where people learned from their mistakes, many would now realize that the Blockfi yield is not as risk-free as they have imagined, and would use this second chance to withdraw their funds and secure them properly. But most people don’t learn from their mistakes, and will think that since they got saved this time, it’ll be so every time. So I think the crash was just delayed, not avoided, and it’ll be the same story all over again the next time the market tumbles.
What is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin during a down market?
Easy, just deposit all your Bitcoin in Celsius and DeFi yield farming LOL.
But seriously, there are no magic tricks to accumulate Bitcoin, you need to work or make investments, generate income, then use it to stack Bitcoin.
How bullish are you on Bitcoin despite this recent pullback?
Really, really, really fu*king bullish.
Any tips you want to give to people new to Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a world changing invention, and it’s still in its early stages. It’s no longer so early that it’s limited to some fringe internet groups, but it still has a long way to grow into its full potential. You’re not too late to get into Bitcoin, to start saving for your future. My advice would be to start with what one would feel comfortable with, and continue from there as you research and understand more. Not everyone has to be an expert, but you really don’t need to be one to hold your own keys, to follow basic best practices, and to stay safe and in control of your own money.
Any last words of wisdom?
Stack sats, hold your keys.
Sponsored by: Simply Bitcoin and Citadel21.com